21 July 2026
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211137
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fausto, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of Baja California.
Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the
eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Southwest of Hawaii:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves generally westward during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
-
Summary for Hurricane Fausto (EP1/EP062026)
...FAUSTO STEADILY STRENGTHENING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 the center of Fausto was located near 15.4, -118.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Fausto Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
037
WTPZ31 KNHC 210844
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Fausto Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
...FAUSTO STEADILY STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 118.0W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 118.0 West. Fausto is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and that general motion
is expected through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest,
accompanied by an increase in forward speed, is expected on
Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next
couple of days, with Fausto forecast to near major hurricane
intensity by Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday, and persist for
a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
-
Hurricane Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
105
WTPZ21 KNHC 210844
TCMEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 117.6W
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.6N 120.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.1N 122.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 124.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.1N 129.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 19.1N 134.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.0N 139.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 118.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
-
Hurricane Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 210846
TCDEP1
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto has continued to become
better organized during the past several hours. Although modest
northerly shear continues to affect the cyclone, the central dense
overcast has recently begun to expand over the center and into the
northwestern quadrant, suggesting that the inner core is becoming
better established. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from
TAFB is now T4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates are hovering
around 65 kt. Based on a blend of these data and the improving
satellite presentation, the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt.
The initial motion is estimated to be 310/9 kt, and that general
motion is expected to persist through tonight as the cyclone moves
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, high
pressure is forecast to build westward to the north of Fausto,
causing the system to turn west-northwestward and gradually
accelerate through the remainder of the forecast period. Track
guidance remains tightly clustered through about 72 h. Thereafter,
although the cross-track spread gradually increases, the multi-model
consensus (HCCA) and GFS have shifted southward toward the ECMWF and
Google DeepMind ensemble mean, which remain on the southern end of
the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is very similar to the
previous, with only a slight shift southward, closely aligning with
the HCCA track.
Fausto is expected to move into an environment of lower vertical
wind shear while remaining over warm waters and within a moist air
mass during the next couple of days. As the modest northerly shear
begins to relax later today or tonight, conditions should support
steady to rapid strengthening through Wednesday. The NHC intensity
forecast brings Fausto to near major hurricane intensity by 36 h and
remains near the upper end of the guidance envelop. A gradual
weakening trend is expected thereafter as the cyclone moves over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable
environment.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 15.4N 118.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 16.6N 120.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 17.1N 122.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 17.4N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 18.1N 129.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 19.1N 134.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 20.0N 139.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
-
Hurricane Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 210845
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 70 10(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 15(55) X(55)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 60(60) 10(70)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 10(37)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)