VYC Weather Center
Current conditions, forecasts, tides and tropical weather for sailors, cruisers and residents of Banderas Bay.
Banderas Bay — Right Now
Nuevo Nayarit / Puerto Vallarta areaToday on Banderas Bay
Local knowledge: global models often underestimate Banderas Bay's afternoon thermal. Typical daily maximum thermal winds are often in the 10–16 kt range.
Today's Tides — Puerto Vallarta
ECMWF AIFS ensemble guidance
Mexican Pacific & Sea of Cortez
Daily briefing
Forecast-period highlights
Highest values expected anywhere in the displayed multi-day forecast.
How to view these graphs
- Ensemble mean wind
- The dark-blue line is the average wind speed across all 51 AIFS ensemble scenarios. It represents the ensemble’s central expectation and is normally the best line for understanding the overall trend.
- Control wind
- The light-blue line is one specific forecast scenario, initialized from unperturbed starting conditions. It is useful for comparison, but it is not inherently more likely than the other ensemble members.
- Ensemble spread
- The shaded blue band shows one standard deviation above and below the mean. A narrow band means the scenarios agree more closely; a wide band indicates greater uncertainty.
- Threshold probabilities
- The middle graph shows the percentage of ensemble scenarios forecasting wind of at least 19 or 29 knots, or offshore waves of at least 2 metres. Wind probabilities use solid orange or red lines; wave probability uses a dashed purple line with circular markers. Higher percentages mean greater confidence that the threshold will be reached.
- Wave height and period
- The lower graph uses the left axis for significant wave height in metres and the right axis for mean wave period in seconds. These are offshore model values and may not represent sheltered harbours or inner bays.
- Wind and wave direction
- Hover over the graphs for direction and exact values. ECMWF provides a derived ensemble-mean wind speed but not a matching mean surface-wind direction, so the displayed wind direction comes from the control scenario.
Practical reading: give the ensemble mean and shaded spread the most weight. Use the control line as another plausible scenario, not as a preferred forecast.
Interactive Weather Map
Weather · Tropical Systems · Forecast OverlaysTropical Weather
Tropical Storm RACHEL
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 000
WTPZ33 KNHC 092043
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 124.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES…
Hurricane SIMON
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026 000
WTPZ35 KNHC 092045
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026
300 PM CST Fri Oct 09 2026
...SIMON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 104.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE.…
Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Hurricane Simon, located a
couple of hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
South of Guatemala:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of
Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by late next week as the system moves
generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Mexican Pacific Cruising Weather
Automated coastal snapshot| Location | Wind | Gusts | Seas | Swell | Weather | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cabo San Lucas | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mazatlán | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Banderas Bay | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manzanillo | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Zihuatanejo | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Acapulco | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Satellite
Clouds & Convection
Hurricane Simon is near 16.0N 104.7W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Simon will move to 16.5N 104.8W this evening, 17.2N 104.9W Sat morning, 18.2N 105.0W Sat evening, 19.4N 105.2W Sun morning, inland to 20.7N 105.4W Sun evening, and 21.9N 105.6W Mon morning. Simon will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 23.6N 106.2W early Tue. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Rachel is near 22.8N 124.6W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Rachel will move to 23.4N 123.6W this evening, 25.1N 121.0W Sat morning, 28.5N 118.1W Sat evening, inland to 33.3N 116.0W Sun morning, inland to 38.1N 114.0W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Expected increasing winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of California Sat night into Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California Norte.
NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Period 15 seconds.
W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in SE to S swell. Period 14 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated tstms through the night.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft in SE swell. Period 14 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N winds 30 to 35 kt, increasing to 40 to 45 kt late. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Period 15 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated tstms through the night.
Weather Resources
Learn how to interpret the forecasts and understand Banderas Bay's local weather patterns.
7-Day Tide Table Puerto Vallarta tide predictions View
| Date | 1st Tide | 2nd Tide | 3rd Tide | 4th Tide | Sun (Rise/Set) | Moon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 |
2:30 am ▼ 0.1 ft |
8:35 am ▲ 3.9 ft |
2:49 pm ▼ -0.3 ft |
8:58 pm ▲ 3.6 ft |
6:54:33 AM 6:41:55 PM |
New |
| Oct 10 |
2:50 am ▼ 0.3 ft |
8:54 am ▲ 4 ft |
3:16 pm ▼ -0.4 ft |
9:27 pm ▲ 3.3 ft |
6:54:52 AM 6:41:04 PM |
New |
| Oct 11 |
3:07 am ▼ 0.5 ft |
9:13 am ▲ 4 ft |
3:43 pm ▼ -0.4 ft |
9:53 pm ▲ 3 ft |
6:55:10 AM 6:40:14 PM |
New |
| Oct 12 |
3:22 am ▼ 0.7 ft |
9:31 am ▲ 3.9 ft |
4:09 pm ▼ -0.2 ft |
10:18 pm ▲ 2.7 ft |
6:55:30 AM 6:39:25 PM |
New |
| Oct 13 |
3:33 am ▼ 0.9 ft |
9:47 am ▲ 3.7 ft |
4:35 pm ▼ -0 ft |
10:41 pm ▲ 2.3 ft |
6:55:49 AM 6:38:37 PM |
Waxing Crescent |
| Oct 14 |
3:38 am ▼ 1.1 ft |
10:01 am ▲ 3.5 ft |
5:02 pm ▼ 0.3 ft |
11:01 pm ▲ 2 ft |
6:56:10 AM 6:37:49 PM |
Waxing Crescent |
| Oct 15 |
3:33 am ▼ 1.2 ft |
10:11 am ▲ 3.3 ft |
5:32 pm ▼ 0.6 ft |
11:16 pm ▲ 1.6 ft |
6:56:30 AM 6:37:01 PM |
Waxing Crescent |
Where Do We Get Our Weather Data? NOAA, ECMWF, Open-Meteo, WorldTides, UWM and how VYC processes it Learn more
The VYC Weather Center doesn't rely on a single weather service. We combine information from several government, academic and commercial data sources, choosing each one for the job it does best. We then process and organize that data to give sailors a quick picture of conditions in Banderas Bay and along the Mexican Pacific coast.
Open-Meteo
Much of the weather information displayed in our current-conditions and cruising-weather panels comes through Open-Meteo. This includes wind, temperature, pressure, precipitation and cloud cover, together with marine information such as wave height, period and direction.
NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS)
Our interactive forecast map uses data from NOAA's Global Forecast System. VYC downloads the raw GFS forecast files for the Mexican Pacific and extracts the wind, gust, atmospheric pressure, precipitation and cloud-cover data useful to sailors.
NOAA GFS-Wave
Wave forecasts come from NOAA's global GFS-Wave model. We process significant wave height, wave period and wave direction to create the wave layer displayed on the interactive weather map.
ECMWF AIFS Ensemble
Our multi-day wind and wave graphs use ECMWF's Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System ensemble. The display compares the ensemble mean with the control forecast, shows forecast spread and gives probabilities for stronger winds and higher seas from Banderas Bay to Cabo San Lucas and the Sea of Cortez. ECMWF AIFS open data is used under CC BY 4.0.
National Hurricane Center
Official tropical-weather advisories, warnings and forecast tracks come from NOAA's National Hurricane Center. These are the authoritative products we use for active tropical systems in the eastern Pacific.
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Hurricane Models
Hurricane forecast-model tracks are obtained from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee hurricane-models site. VYC downloads the available model-track files and combines them into the model-track overlay shown on the interactive weather map. These model tracks are guidance only and should always be considered alongside the official NHC forecast.
GOES-19 Satellite
Satellite imagery comes from NOAA's GOES-19 weather satellite, providing a broad view of cloud development, convection and tropical activity over Mexico and the eastern Pacific.
NOAA Marine Forecasts
The marine forecast section includes official eastern Pacific forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center. These are particularly useful when evaluating conditions beyond Banderas Bay and planning longer coastal or offshore passages.
WorldTides.info
Tide predictions are supplied by WorldTides.info through VYC's TideTable system. We use these predictions for the daily and seven-day tide displays and to determine the next expected high or low tide.
How VYC Turns the Data Into This Page
Some information can be displayed almost directly, but much of the Weather Center is generated automatically behind the scenes.
Several times each day, VYC's weather system downloads raw NOAA forecast data covering Banderas Bay and much of the Mexican Pacific. The large GRIB forecast files are reduced to the geographic area and weather variables that are useful to sailors.
Wind speed and direction are calculated from the model's east-west and north-south wind components. Atmospheric pressure is processed and contoured into familiar isobars. Wave height, period and direction are combined to create the marine forecast display.
The resulting Wind, Pressure and Waves layers are rendered at three-hour intervals out to 120 hours and placed over the interactive map.
VYC also downloads hurricane forecast-model tracks from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, combines the individual model files into a single overlay, and displays those alongside official NHC storm tracks and our Mexican Pacific cruising destinations.
For the summary panels, we select the forecast data nearest each location, convert it into familiar units, calculate useful values such as the next tide, and condense the results into the cards and tables you see on this page.
The result is not another weather model. It is VYC's sailor-friendly presentation of several established weather, marine and tide-data sources in one place.
A note about forecasts: Computer models are guidance, not observations, and different models may disagree. Conditions around Banderas Bay can also be strongly affected by local terrain and sea-breeze effects that global models cannot always resolve. For important decisions, particularly offshore or during tropical weather, always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings.
