The colored lines on our hurricane map are forecast guidance from several computer models and model combinations. Each one approaches the atmosphere differently, so the tracks rarely agree exactly. The spread among them helps show how uncertain the future path may be.
What does the “I” mean? Most four-letter identifiers ending in I are “interpolated” versions of guidance from the previous forecast cycle. They are adjusted forward six hours to the current storm position, allowing them to be compared with newer guidance on the same map.
Important: These lines are guidance—not separate official forecasts. For watches, warnings and safety decisions, always use the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center or the appropriate national weather service.
Official forecast
OFCI Official NHC/CPHC Forecast
The official forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center or Central Pacific Hurricane Center, interpolated to the current model cycle. It combines model guidance with analysis and judgment from hurricane specialists.
Official guidanceConsensus guidance
TVCN Variable Track Consensus
A simple average of available skillful track models, produced when at least two members are present. Combining several models often reduces the large errors that can occur in any single forecast.
Track consensusHCCA HFIP Corrected Consensus
A consensus that corrects known model biases and assigns unequal weights based on past performance. It supplies both track and intensity guidance and is designed to outperform a simple average.
Corrected consensusGlobal and ensemble models
AVNI GFS
The interpolated Global Forecast System run from the U.S. National Weather Service. This global model forecasts the full atmosphere and is one of the principal sources of tropical-cyclone track guidance.
U.S. global modelAEMI GEFS Ensemble Mean
The interpolated mean of the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System. Averaging many slightly different forecasts helps reveal the most common solution, while the individual members describe uncertainty.
U.S. ensembleCMCI Canadian Deterministic Model
The interpolated Canadian global deterministic forecast, also known as the Canadian Deterministic Prediction System. It provides an independent view of the storm and its surrounding weather pattern.
Canadian global modelCEMI Canadian Ensemble Mean
The interpolated mean of the Canadian ensemble forecast system. Its many members sample different possible atmospheric states, making it useful for judging broader track uncertainty.
Canadian ensembleUKXI UKMET
The interpolated forecast from the United Kingdom Met Office global model. It is a highly regarded independent model whose solution is often compared with the U.S. and Canadian guidance.
U.K. global modelNVGI NAVGEM
The interpolated U.S. Navy Global Environmental Model forecast. As a global model, it represents both the cyclone and the larger steering currents that influence its future path.
U.S. Navy global modelGDMI Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean
The interpolated mean of an artificial-intelligence weather ensemble developed by Google DeepMind. It generates multiple possible forecasts and combines them into a mean track and intensity solution.
AI ensemble guidanceHurricane-specific regional models
HFAI HAFS Version A
The interpolated Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Version A. Its high-resolution moving nests focus computing power around the cyclone to predict track, intensity and storm structure.
High-resolution hurricane modelHFBI HAFS Version B
The interpolated Version B configuration of HAFS. It uses a different model setup from Version A, giving forecasters another high-resolution estimate of track, intensity and wind extent.
High-resolution hurricane modelCTCI COAMPS-TC
The interpolated U.S. Naval Research Laboratory tropical-cyclone model. Nested grids concentrate detail near the storm while global forecast data describe the surrounding environment.
U.S. Navy hurricane modelHMNI HMON
The interpolated Hurricane Multiscale Ocean-coupled Nonhydrostatic model. It couples the atmosphere and ocean to account for effects such as storm-driven cooling beneath a tropical cyclone.
Coupled hurricane modelHWFI HWRF
The interpolated Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model. This long-running, high-resolution hurricane model forecast track and intensity; HAFS is its newer operational successor.
Legacy hurricane modelIntensity-only guidance
NNIB Neural-Network Baseline
A baseline intensity forecast formed by equally averaging the same four model inputs used by NNIC. It is used to judge whether the neural-network method adds skill beyond a straightforward model average.
Intensity onlyNNIC Neural-Network Intensity Consensus
A machine-learning intensity aid that combines several forecast models with environmental predictors such as sea-surface temperature and wind shear. It predicts wind intensity, not an independent storm track.
Intensity onlyHow to read the map: A tight cluster of model tracks generally indicates better agreement, but it does not guarantee accuracy. A wide spread signals greater uncertainty. The official forecast and its cone remain the best summary of expected motion and probable track uncertainty.
Sources and further reading:
- National Hurricane Center: Track and Intensity Models
- University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee: Model Identifiers
- NOAA: The National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance Suite
Model availability varies by storm and forecast cycle. Model list checked against the VYC map on August 19, 2026.